White House economist says ‘massive refund checks’ are coming to Americans in biggest refund cycle in history. Here’s who should get at least $2,000

“We didn't pass the Big Beautiful Bill until the middle of the summer, and so a lot of the tax changes which affect last year weren't in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of the year,” he told Fox Business (1).

“So we are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks.”

Hassett pointed out that the impact will be especially pronounced for a specific group of workers: those who rely on tips or overtime.

“For the typical person who's a tip worker or gets overtime pay, we're expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple thousand-dollar refund,” he said.

That’s because the One Big Beautiful Bill scrapped taxes on tips and overtime, giving these workers a noticeable boost in take-home pay.

Hassett added that the administration will launch “a big PR campaign at the beginning of the year urging people to file early” to make sure workers claim everything they’re owed.

For many households, that raises an immediate question: What’s the smartest way to use a sudden cash infusion? Whether you’re thinking about shoring up your finances, preparing for uncertainty, or putting that extra money to work, here are a few ways Americans may consider investing their potential windfall.

‘The best thing to do,’ according to Warren Buffett

The U.S. stock market has been a powerful engine of wealth creation. Trump has pointed to that strength, recently saying, “the only thing that’s really going up big? It’s the stock market and your 401(k)s.” (2)

The benchmark S&P 500 is up about 16% year to date and has gained roughly 84% over the past five years.

Of course, consistently picking winning stocks isn’t easy. That’s why legendary investor Warren Buffett argues that most people don’t need to pick individual companies at all to benefit from the stock market’s long-term growth.

“In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” Buffett has famously stated (3).

This approach gives investors exposure to 500 of America’s largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading.

If you’d like to follow Buffett’s approach, getting started has never been easier.

With investing platforms like Robinhood, you can buy and sell stocks and ETFs — such as an S&P 500 index fund — and trade options commission-free, track your portfolio in real time, and get 24/7 access to customer service.

For those starting small, the app also lets you buy fractional shares for as little as $1, making it easy to build a diversified portfolio without breaking the bank.

The best part? new Robinhood customers can also get a free stock curated from top American companies once you sign up and link your bank account to the app.

Build wealth through US real estate

Beyond stocks, real estate has long been another cornerstone of wealth-building in America.

In fact, Buffett often points to real estate when explaining what a productive, income-generating asset looks like. In 2022, Buffett stated that if you offered him “1% of all the apartment houses in the country” for $25 billion, he would “write you a check.” (4)

Why? Because regardless of what’s happening in the broader economy, people still need a place to live and apartments can consistently produce rent money.

Real estate also offers a built-in hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, property values often increase as well, reflecting the higher costs of materials, labor and land. At the same time, rental income tends to go up, providing landlords with a revenue stream that adjusts with inflation.

Of course, you don’t need $25 billion — or even to buy a single property outright — to invest in real estate. Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived offer an easier way to get exposure to this income-generating asset class.

Backed by world class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of rental homes with as little as $100, all without the hassle of mowing lawns, fixing leaky faucets or handling difficult tenants.

The process is simple: browse a curated selection of homes that have been vetted for their appreciation and income potential. Once you find a property you like, select the number of shares you’d want to purchase and then sit back as you start receiving any positive rental income distributions from your investment.