People in this 1 group could find it cheaper to pay out of pocket for health care in 2026. But is it worth the risk?

As of this past summer, approximately 27.2 million Americans lack health insurance, representing 8.2% of the population, according to the CDC (3). The Congressional Budget Office projects 3.8 million people will lose coverage annually starting in 2026, potentially pushing that number to 31 million by 2027 (1).

Going without might be cheaper — but at what cost?

There's a single scenario where skipping health insurance could theoretically save money: if you don't have access to employer or government-sponsored coverage and you remain healthy throughout the year — something that is never guaranteed for anyone.

This means for some people, total health care costs "could amount to higher spending on medical care than if (they) were uninsured, especially (if they) are healthy or rarely use health care," Anna Doar Sinaiko, a professor of health economics and policy at Harvard University, told Newsweek. And Gerard Anderson, a professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University, explained costs could be lower for those who are lucky enough to "not get hit by a bus, develop cancer or have a heart attack and incur a big bill.”

In other words, if you're paying thousands annually in premiums plus deductibles, and you only need occasional primary care, your total insurance costs might exceed what you'd pay in cash. Some providers even offer lower cash prices, noted Christopher Whaley, a professor at Brown University, which can be cheaper for patients and "saves providers the hassle of going through insurance processes."

However, Anderson cautioned that 20% of people typically incur 80% of the health care costs, but since we don't know who ends up in that 20%, "Unless you are an extreme risk taker, it is always better to have health insurance (4)."

The catastrophic risk

The problem with gambling on staying healthy is that accidents don't announce themselves in advance. One unexpected medical crisis can financially devastate an uninsured person. This is why many choose to get protection against high treatment costs and take the insurance route.

According to HealthCare.gov, a broken leg can cost up to $7,500, while the average three-day hospital stay runs around $30,000 (5). For car accident victims, the CDC reports the average medical bill is $5,800 for emergency department treatment (6). Emergency room visits for such accidents have averaged over $3,000, while hospitalization can be $57,000 or more, according to estimates from BestLawyers.com (7).

Another reason insurance is a good idea for expensive care like this, Whaley added, is that insurers "negotiate discounts off of provider rates, (so) if a patient has a hospital stay, then costs without insurance could be much higher than insurance prices (4)."